Poland football 2026
Class D South
Where Poland and its rivals finish
Class D South
6 of 7 make itFull table →1 FreeportCrabtree 129.688 6-2 129.6888 counted · all in Projected #1 · avg. finish 1.0Most likely #1 (>99%) CLINCHED
- Fri 10/23vs LisbonW 34-0
- Fri 10/16at DirigoW 42-14
- Thu 10/8at WellsL 24-28
- Fri 10/2vs MorseW 20-6
- Sat 9/26at WinslowL 6-14
- Fri 9/18at PolandW 40-6
- Fri 9/11vs WinthropW 29-28
- Sat 9/5vs MattanawcookW 42-6
Regular season done.
Where Freeport can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #1 = its average finish (1.0). Most likely #1 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #1 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
2 WinthropCrabtree 123.438 7-1 123.4388 counted · all in Projected #2 · avg. finish 2.0Most likely #2 (>99%) CLINCHED
- Fri 10/23at John BapstW 14-6
- Thu 10/15at Mountain ValleyW 29-7
- Fri 10/9vs DirigoW 19-6
- Sat 10/3at Oak HillW 35-0
- Thu 9/24vs PolandW 34-6
- Thu 9/17vs MadisonW 38-8
- Fri 9/11at FreeportL 28-29
- Fri 9/4vs LisbonW 34-3
Regular season done.
Where Winthrop can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #2 = its average finish (2.0). Most likely #2 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #2 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
3 MorseCrabtree 109.375 5-3 109.3758 counted · all in Projected #3 · avg. finish 3.0Most likely #3 (>99%) CLINCHED
- Fri 10/23vs BelfastW 42-8
- Sat 10/17at WinslowL 6-30
- Thu 10/8vs PolandW 40-6
- Fri 10/2at FreeportL 6-20
- Fri 9/25vs LisbonW 28-8
- Fri 9/18vs BiddefordL 8-26
- Fri 9/11at DirigoW 30-15
- Fri 9/4at Mountain ValleyW 16-8
Regular season done.
Where Morse can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #3 = its average finish (3.0). Most likely #3 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #3 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
4 LisbonCrabtree 104.688 5-3 104.6888 counted · all in Projected #4 · avg. finish 4.0Most likely #4 (>99%) CLINCHED
- Fri 10/23at FreeportL 0-34
- Fri 10/16vs Oak HillW 47-14
- Fri 10/9vs MattanawcookW 27-6
- Tue 10/6vs MadisonW 20-18
- Fri 10/2at PolandW 35-16
- Fri 9/25at MorseL 8-28
- Fri 9/18vs Mountain ValleyW 34-6
- Fri 9/4at WinthropL 3-34
Regular season done.
Where Lisbon can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #4 = its average finish (4.0). Most likely #4 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #4 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
5 DirigoCrabtree 85.938 2-6 85.9388 counted · all in Projected #5 · avg. finish 5.0Most likely #5 (>99%) CLINCHED
- Fri 10/23at MCIL 16-23
- Fri 10/16vs FreeportL 14-42
- Fri 10/9at WinthropL 6-19
- Fri 10/2vs LeavittL 0-42
- Fri 9/25at Mountain ValleyW 24-6
- Thu 9/17at John BapstL 6-18
- Fri 9/11vs MorseL 15-30
- Fri 9/4vs PolandW 52-28
Regular season done.
Where Dirigo can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #5 = its average finish (5.0). Most likely #5 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #5 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
6 Mountain ValleyCrabtree 70.313 2-6 70.3138 counted · all in Projected #6 · avg. finish 6.0Most likely #6 (>99%) CLINCHED
- Fri 10/23at PolandW 26-21
- Thu 10/15vs WinthropL 7-29
- Sat 10/10at John BapstL 14-36
- Fri 10/2vs BelfastW 20-0
- Fri 9/25vs DirigoL 6-24
- Fri 9/18at LisbonL 6-34
- Fri 9/11at MattanawcookL 6-14
- Fri 9/4vs MorseL 8-16
Regular season done.
Where Mountain Valley can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #6 = its average finish (6.0). Most likely #6 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #6 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
7 PolandCrabtree 67.188 1-7 67.1888 counted · all in Projected #7 · avg. finish 7.0Most likely #7 (>99%) ELIMINATED
- Fri 10/23vs Mountain ValleyL 21-26
- Fri 10/16at MadisonL 28-34
- Thu 10/8at MorseL 6-40
- Fri 10/2vs LisbonL 16-35
- Thu 9/24at WinthropL 6-34
- Fri 9/18vs FreeportL 6-40
- Fri 9/11vs MCIW 34-14
- Fri 9/4at DirigoL 28-52
Regular season done.
Where Poland can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #7 = its average finish (7.0). Most likely #7 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #7 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
Why?
Projected: each team gets its own spot, in order of its average finish across the simulated seasons (avg. finish). Most likely: the single spot it finished in most often. Tap a team for the % at every spot. Estimates, and they can be wrong.
Class D South
6 of 7 make itFull table →1 Freeport 6-2 Likely #1 · >99% CLINCHED
Where Freeport can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
2 Winthrop 7-1 Likely #2 · >99% CLINCHED
Where Winthrop can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
3 Morse 5-3 Likely #3 · >99% CLINCHED
Where Morse can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
4 Lisbon 5-3 Likely #4 · >99% CLINCHED
Where Lisbon can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
5 Dirigo 2-6 Likely #5 · >99% CLINCHED
Where Dirigo can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
6 Mountain Valley 2-6 Likely #6 · >99% CLINCHED
Where Mountain Valley can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
7 Poland 1-7 Likely #7 · >99% ELIMINATED
Where Poland can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
Why?
Each cell is how often the team finished in that place in 1,500 played-out seasons: an estimate. Empty cells can't be reached, proven by checking every combination of the remaining results. The outlined cell is where each team stands now.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · Class D South, top 6 qualify · all divisions →
Poland can no longer reach the top 6. Every result still counts toward other teams' Crabtree numbers.
Why?
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. The highest and lowest places are exact: some combination of results reaches each of them, and none goes past them. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
How this is figured Crabtree step by step · tiebreakers · power rating
Crabtree index today: 67.188 (the MPA's playoff number, recomputed).
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Dirigo | 2-6 | yes |
| MCI | 6-2 | yes |
| Freeport | 6-2 | yes |
| Winthrop | 7-1 | yes |
| Lisbon | 5-3 | yes |
| Morse | 5-3 | yes |
| Madison | 2-6 | yes |
| Mountain Valley | 2-6 | yes |
Own win% = 1 / 8 = 0.1250
Opponents pooled = 35 wins / 64 games = 0.5469
Crabtree = (0.1250 + 0.5469) × 100 = 67.188
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 4.250, tournament index 32.1875 over 8 scheduled games.
Our power rating
Rated #51 of Maine's 55 11-man teams, est. 24.1 points below an average team.
-24.1 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -33.0 to -15.2) · rank #51 among 11-man teams · est. <1% chance of being the top-rated team in Class D South, est. <1% in all of 11-man
8 games of evidence; 11% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average D team); from Week 7 on last season doesn't count at all. A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
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Quick answers
Can Poland still make the playoffs?
No. Poland is eliminated: no combination of the games left puts it in the Class D South top 6.
When is Poland's next game?
Poland's regular season is over (1-7). Playoff dates and sites come from the MPA; our bracket page adds them as they're posted.
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