Mt. Blue football 2026
Class B North
Where Mt. Blue and its rivals finish
Class B North
6 of 8 make itFull table →1 LawrenceCrabtree 142.188 8-0 142.1888 counted · all in Projected #1 · avg. finish 1.0Most likely #1 (>99%) CLINCHED
- Fri 10/23vs MessalonskeeW 60-6
- Sat 10/17at Camden HillsW 41-14
- Fri 10/9vs BrunswickW 55-7
- Fri 10/2vs ConyW 35-27
- Fri 9/25at Mt. BlueW 49-6
- Fri 9/18at SkowheganW 29-13
- Fri 9/11vs FryeburgW 27-14
- Thu 9/3at GorhamW 48-0
Regular season done.
Where Lawrence can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #1 = its average finish (1.0). Most likely #1 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #1 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
2 ConyCrabtree 132.813 7-1 132.8138 counted · all in Projected #2 · avg. finish 2.0Most likely #2 (>99%) CLINCHED
- Fri 10/23at GardinerW 49-14
- Fri 10/16vs BrunswickW 55-7
- Thu 10/8vs Camden HillsW 37-0
- Fri 10/2at LawrenceL 27-35
- Fri 9/25vs MessalonskeeW 41-14
- Fri 9/18at Mt. BlueW 14-0
- Fri 9/11vs SkowheganW 42-35
- Fri 9/4at FryeburgW 25-21
Regular season done.
Where Cony can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #2 = its average finish (2.0). Most likely #2 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #2 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
3 SkowheganCrabtree 114.063 5-3 114.0638 counted · all in Projected #3 · avg. finish 3.0Most likely #3 (>99%) CLINCHED
- Fri 10/23at FryeburgL 32-48
- Fri 10/16vs MessalonskeeW 40-8
- Fri 10/9vs BiddefordW 36-7
- Sat 10/3at Camden HillsW 34-12
- Fri 9/25vs BrunswickW 19-17
- Fri 9/18vs LawrenceL 13-29
- Fri 9/11at ConyL 35-42
- Fri 9/4at Mt. BlueW 26-21
Regular season done.
Where Skowhegan can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #3 = its average finish (3.0). Most likely #3 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #3 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
4 FryeburgCrabtree 104.688 4-4 104.6888 counted · all in Projected #4 · avg. finish 4.0Most likely #4 (>99%) CLINCHED
- Fri 10/23vs SkowheganW 48-32
- Fri 10/16at Mt. BlueW 14-13
- Fri 10/9vs KennebunkL 34-35
- Fri 10/2at MessalonskeeL 20-28
- Sat 9/26vs Camden HillsW 42-10
- Fri 9/18at BrunswickW 44-20
- Fri 9/11at LawrenceL 14-27
- Fri 9/4vs ConyL 21-25
Regular season done.
Where Fryeburg can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #4 = its average finish (4.0). Most likely #4 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #4 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
5 MessalonskeeCrabtree 96.032 4-4 96.0328 counted · all in Projected #5 · avg. finish 5.0Most likely #5 (>99%) CLINCHED
- Fri 10/23at LawrenceL 6-60
- Fri 10/16at SkowheganL 8-40
- Fri 10/9vs Mt. BlueW 41-26
- Fri 10/2vs FryeburgW 28-20
- Fri 9/25at ConyL 14-41
- Fri 9/18vs LewistonW 29-7
- Fri 9/11at BrunswickL 14-28
- Fri 9/4vs Camden HillsW 20-15
Regular season done.
Where Messalonskee can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #5 = its average finish (5.0). Most likely #5 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #5 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
6 BrunswickCrabtree 81.250 2-6 81.2508 counted · all in Projected #6 · avg. finish 6.0Most likely #6 (>99%) CLINCHED
- Fri 10/23vs Camden HillsW 34-23
- Fri 10/16at ConyL 7-55
- Fri 10/9at LawrenceL 7-55
- Sat 10/3vs Mt. BlueL 6-39
- Fri 9/25at SkowheganL 17-19
- Fri 9/18vs FryeburgL 20-44
- Fri 9/11vs MessalonskeeW 28-14
- Thu 9/3at BiddefordL 6-28
Regular season done.
Where Brunswick can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #6 = its average finish (6.0). Most likely #6 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #6 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
7 Mt. BlueCrabtree 78.968 2-6 78.9688 counted · all in Projected #7 · avg. finish 7.0Most likely #7 (>99%) ELIMINATED
- Fri 10/23at Edward LittleL 0-35
- Fri 10/16vs FryeburgL 13-14
- Fri 10/9at MessalonskeeL 26-41
- Sat 10/3at BrunswickW 39-6
- Fri 9/25vs LawrenceL 6-49
- Fri 9/18vs ConyL 0-14
- Sat 9/12at Camden HillsW 30-12
- Fri 9/4vs SkowheganL 21-26
Regular season done.
Where Mt. Blue can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #7 = its average finish (7.0). Most likely #7 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #7 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
8 Camden HillsCrabtree 65.625 1-7 65.6258 counted · all in Projected #8 · avg. finish 8.0Most likely #8 (>99%) ELIMINATED
- Fri 10/23at BrunswickL 23-34
- Sat 10/17vs LawrenceL 14-41
- Thu 10/8at ConyL 0-37
- Sat 10/3vs SkowheganL 12-34
- Sat 9/26at FryeburgL 10-42
- Fri 9/18vs Medomak ValleyW 21-0
- Sat 9/12vs Mt. BlueL 12-30
- Fri 9/4at MessalonskeeL 15-20
Regular season done.
Where Camden Hills can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #8 = its average finish (8.0). Most likely #8 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #8 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
Why?
Projected: each team gets its own spot, in order of its average finish across the simulated seasons (avg. finish). Most likely: the single spot it finished in most often. Tap a team for the % at every spot. Estimates, and they can be wrong.
Class B North
6 of 8 make itFull table →1 Lawrence 8-0 Likely #1 · >99% CLINCHED
Where Lawrence can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
2 Cony 7-1 Likely #2 · >99% CLINCHED
Where Cony can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
3 Skowhegan 5-3 Likely #3 · >99% CLINCHED
Where Skowhegan can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
4 Fryeburg 4-4 Likely #4 · >99% CLINCHED
Where Fryeburg can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
5 Messalonskee 4-4 Likely #5 · >99% CLINCHED
Where Messalonskee can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
6 Brunswick 2-6 Likely #6 · >99% CLINCHED
Where Brunswick can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
7 Mt. Blue 2-6 Likely #7 · >99% ELIMINATED
Where Mt. Blue can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
8 Camden Hills 1-7 Likely #8 · >99% ELIMINATED
Where Camden Hills can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
Why?
Each cell is how often the team finished in that place in 1,500 played-out seasons: an estimate. Empty cells can't be reached, proven by checking every combination of the remaining results. The outlined cell is where each team stands now.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · Class B North, top 6 qualify · all divisions →
Mt. Blue can no longer reach the top 6. Every result still counts toward other teams' Crabtree numbers.
Why?
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. The highest and lowest places are exact: some combination of results reaches each of them, and none goes past them. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
How this is figured Crabtree step by step · tiebreakers · power rating
Crabtree index today: 78.968 (the MPA's playoff number, recomputed).
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Skowhegan | 5-3 | yes |
| Camden Hills | 1-7 | yes |
| Cony | 7-1 | yes |
| Lawrence | 8-0 | yes |
| Brunswick | 2-6 | yes |
| Messalonskee | 4-4 | yes |
| Fryeburg | 4-4 | yes |
| Edward Little | 3-4 | yes |
Own win% = 2 / 8 = 0.2500
Opponents pooled = 34 wins / 63 games = 0.5397
Crabtree = (0.2500 + 0.5397) × 100 = 78.968
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 9.500, tournament index 17.5000 over 8 scheduled games.
Our power rating
Rated #26 of Maine's 55 11-man teams. After 8 games the data can't yet tell Mt. Blue apart from an average team.
-0.2 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -8.5 to 8.2) · rank #26 among 11-man teams · est. <1% chance of being the top-rated team in Class B North, est. <1% in all of 11-man
8 games of evidence; 11% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average B team); from Week 7 on last season doesn't count at all. A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
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Quick answers
Can Mt. Blue still make the playoffs?
No. Mt. Blue is eliminated: no combination of the games left puts it in the Class B North top 6.
When is Mt. Blue's next game?
Mt. Blue's regular season is over (2-6). Playoff dates and sites come from the MPA; our bracket page adds them as they're posted.
More Mt. Blue: Basketball