Week 10 preview

The numbers below are as of this write-up; they keep updating until each kickoff, and the NFL home page is always available on the main page.

Where we differ from the market

We agree with the benchmark pick in every game this week. The interesting part is then the size of the edge, not the side.

The confident ones

• Buffalo Bills over New York Jets at est. 83%: BUF is the better team (+16); BUF in better form (+6); BUF has the QB edge (+6)
• Jacksonville Jaguars over Tennessee Titans at est. 83%: JAX is the better team (+16); JAX has the QB edge (+8); JAX in better form (+7)
• Los Angeles Rams over Arizona Cardinals at est. 79%: LA is the better team (+14); LA has the QB edge (+7); LA in better form (+6)

The coin flips

• CAR @ NO — NO at est. est. 54%: NO at home (+8); CAR has the schedule edge (-2); NO in better form (+1)
• SEA @ LV — SEA at est. est. 56%: SEA is the better team (+21); LV at home (-7); SEA in better form (+7)

What the news layer changed

Several injury moves and trades shifted the model this week. Detroit got a boost of 2.2 points after acquiring a safety from the Jets for secondary depth, though New England's losses at running back and offensive line hurt the Patriots. New Orleans lost 1.9 points when their defensive tackle was traded to Jacksonville. Houston gained 1.4 points partly because Cleveland's starting quarterback status remains uncertain after a concussion. Jacksonville's acquisition of a Pro Bowl safety and defensive tackle added 0.4 points. Kansas City gained 4.3 points as their quarterback cleared concussion protocol, while Atlanta lost significant ground after placing a player on injured reserve for a minimum four games and trading away a safety to Jacksonville.

Indianapolis dropped 0.9 points after trading away two key linemen and their star running back at the deadline. Green Bay fell 1.9 points with a running back out indefinitely after finger surgery. Los Angeles took a 2.1-point hit from multiple injuries to receivers and an offensive lineman, while Arizona's quarterback situation worsened with a likely season-ending injury. Seattle fell 5.7 points when their starting quarterback was ruled out, forcing Drew Lock to start despite an oblique injury. San Francisco gained 1.9 points despite losing a rookie defensive tackle to a season-ending ankle injury, while Dallas placed a player on injured reserve and lost their starting tight end.

Every pick

• Thu 8:15 PM · WAS @ NYG — NYG est. 59% · projected 22–24
• Sun 9:30 AM · NE @ DET — DET est. 64% · projected 23–28
• Sun 1:00 PM · BUF @ NYJ — BUF est. 83% · projected 30–19
• Sun 1:00 PM · CAR @ NO — NO est. 54% · projected 23–24
• Sun 1:00 PM · HOU @ CLE — HOU est. 68% · projected 24–20
• Sun 1:00 PM · JAX @ TEN — JAX est. 83% · projected 28–16
• Sun 1:00 PM · KC @ ATL — KC est. 67% · projected 26–21
• Sun 1:00 PM · MIA @ IND — IND est. 62% · projected 20–24
• Sun 1:00 PM · MIN @ GB — GB est. 64% · projected 21–24
• Sun 4:05 PM · LA @ ARI — LA est. 79% · projected 29–19
• Sun 4:05 PM · SEA @ LV — SEA est. 56% · projected 24–22
• Sun 4:25 PM · SF @ DAL — SF est. 61% · projected 28–25
• Sun 8:20 PM · PIT @ CIN — CIN est. 62% · projected 23–26
• Mon 8:15 PM · LAC @ BAL — BAL est. 63% · projected 18–24

Predictions are published to show the model works. Nothing here is a tip.