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Pro › NFL › Week 9 preview

Week 9 preview

Nov 3

Written by our system from the week's data, with the same language model that reads the news; no human edited it. Every number comes from the Record and Week 9 pages. If a sentence reads wrong, tell us.

The model agrees with the benchmark pick in all 15 games this week. The interesting question then becomes the size of the edge, not which side to pick.

The confident ones

Five games stand out as clear matchups:

  • Jacksonville over Baltimore at est. 74%: JAX has the QB edge (+12), is in better form (+9), and is the better team overall (+7).
  • Kansas City over New York Jets at est. 78%: KC is the better team (+12), plays at home (+5), and has the QB advantage (+4).
  • Houston over Los Angeles Chargers at est. 72%: HOU is the better team (+9) and has the QB edge (+7), though LAC's home field provides some offset (-7).
  • San Francisco over Las Vegas at est. 83%: SF is the better team (+11), plays at home (+4), and has the QB edge (+3).
  • Seattle over Arizona at est. 81%: SEA is the better team (+13), plays at home (+5), and is in better form (+4).

The coin flips

Three games are nearly even:

  • New Orleans over Cleveland at est. 59%: NO's home field (+8) and schedule edge (+4) are countered by CLE's more efficient offense (-4).
  • Buffalo over Minnesota at est. 57%: BUF's QB edge (+11) and overall quality (+5) offset MIN's home advantage (-8).
  • Dallas over Indianapolis at est. 57%: DAL's QB edge (+12) and better form (+6) are reduced by IND's home field (-8).

Injury and roster moves

The news layer shifted several lines. Baltimore's losses of Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley moved Jacksonville's edge up 1.9 points. Atlanta's defensive absences moved Cincinnati up 1.9 points. Detroit's concussion casualties and season-ending hamstring injury moved the market price 4.0 points in Miami's favor. Arizona's injuries to its rookie running back, left tackle, and a wide receiver moved Seattle up 4.0 points.

Dallas's 14-point fourth-quarter collapse against Arizona and Indianapolis's mid-season trades of Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner slightly reduced Dallas's edge by 0.4 points. Philadelphia's six-game losing streak and poor morale moved New York slightly up 1.1 points.

Los Angeles, now 0-7, faces potential historic futility. Houston's edge over the Chargers grew 3.0 points.

Predictions are published to show the model works. Nothing here is a tip.

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