Week 9 review

14–1 straight-up (93%). The benchmark pick went 14–1 over the same games.

The misses

GB @ NE — picked New England Patriots at est. 65%, final 45–27. The market had it the same way.

The biggest surprise was New England Patriots at est. 65%: Green Bay won decisively despite the model and the market favoring the Patriots.

What stood out

Measured against every game since 2009 (arithmetic on final scores and market's final price, nothing else):

• Week 9: 1 of 15 closing-line other side won, the 2nd-fewest upsets (by the market's final price) of 303 regular-season weeks since 2009.
• Chicago Bears won despite 5 turnovers; teams that turn it over 5+ times rarely do (it has happened in 182 games since 2009, and those teams lost most of them).
• Las Vegas Raiders committed 5 turnovers.
• Houston Texans were sacked 8 times, among the most in any game since 2009 (36 games had more).
• Buffalo Bills beat Minnesota Vikings for the first time since Week 3, 2018.
• Detroit Lions beat Miami Dolphins for the first time since Week 7, 2018.
• Chicago Bears beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the first time since Week 5, 2020 (2 straight losses in between).
• Christian Watson (Green Bay Packers): 171 receiving yards, a career high in 58 games since 2009 (previous best 150).

Where we differed from the market

We agreed with the benchmark pick in every game this week.

What the news layer did

46 claims were applied before kickoff; 27 pointed the right way. No pick flipped.

Key injury impacts: Vikings starting Carson Wentz at QB after Kyler Murray ruled out helped the model's read by 5.7 points. A running back placed on IR with a foot injury helped by 2.0 points. Several other injuries hurt the model's read, including two separate injured reserve placements in the Jaguars-Ravens game, each at 1.9 points.

Of the claims we declined, 93 would have helped. The pattern suggests we remain conservative on injury adjustments.

Rankings after the week

• Minnesota Vikings down 3 to #14 (from #11).
• Houston Texans up 1 to #13 (from #14).
• New England Patriots up 1 to #12 (from #13).
• Pittsburgh Steelers up 1 to #11 (from #12).

Next: Week 10

Picks are up on the NFL home page and update four times a day until kickoff.

Predictions are published to show the model works. Nothing here is a tip.