The model grades itself honestly, which means it knows the market beats it more often than not. This week we have 14 games. The numbers below are current as of this write-up; they keep updating until each kickoff, and the NFL home page always has the current version.
Where we differ from the market
Two games stand out as places where our read diverges from the market's price.
In LV @ NYJ, we have the Jets at est. 57% while the market picks Las Vegas. New York's home field is worth 8 points in our model. Las Vegas has the quarterback edge, worth minus-4. The Jets have the more efficient offense, worth plus-2.
In KC @ DEN, we have Denver at est. 60% while the market picks Kansas City. Denver at home is worth 8 points. Kansas City has the quarterback edge, worth minus-4. Denver is the better team overall, worth plus-4.
History says the market wins these matchups about 56 to 44, so these games test the model rather than confirm it.
The confident ones
Six games grade out at est. 73% or higher for one side.
Green Bay Packers over Carolina at est. 73%: Green Bay has the quarterback edge (plus-8), plays at home (plus-6), and is the better team (plus-5).
Dallas Cowboys over Arizona at est. 78%: Dallas has the quarterback edge (plus-7), plays at home (plus-6), and is in better form (plus-5).
Buffalo Bills over Baltimore at est. 82%: Buffalo is the better team (plus-6), has the quarterback edge (plus-6), and plays at home (plus-5).
Jacksonville Jaguars over Indianapolis at est. 78%: Jacksonville is the better team (plus-9), has the quarterback edge (plus-6), and plays at home (plus-5).
Cincinnati Bengals over Tennessee at est. 88%: Cincinnati is the better team (plus-9), has the quarterback edge (plus-7), and plays at home (plus-3).
Los Angeles Rams over Los Angeles Chargers at est. 79%: Los Angeles is the better team (plus-11), has the quarterback edge (plus-8), and plays at home (plus-5).
The coin flip
ATL @ TB grades to Tampa Bay at est. 52%: Tampa Bay plays at home (plus-8). Atlanta has the quarterback edge (minus-4) and the schedule edge (minus-2).
Injury and roster moves
News moved several picks. Carolina's right tackle placed on injured reserve added 1.9 points toward Green Bay. Arizona's receiver ruled out for the season added 1.9 toward Dallas. Baltimore's season-ending pectoral injury and rookie guard with MCL sprain added 3.4 toward Buffalo. Cleveland's multiple injured linemen and defensive tackle added 4.0 toward Pittsburgh. Kansas City's running back on injured reserve added 3.0 toward Denver. Philadelphia's knee injury added 1.9 toward Washington. Seattle's left tackle out with high-ankle sprain subtracted 1.7 from Seattle's advantage. Indianapolis's general manager firing and three-game losing streak subtracted 1.1 from Jacksonville's edge.
Predictions are published to show the model works. Nothing here is a tip.
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