Week 8 review

Week 8 in review

11–3 straight-up (79%). The benchmark pick went 11–3 over the same games.

A solid week overall, though three games went the other way despite the model and the market agreeing on the pick.

The misses

• ARI @ DAL — picked Dallas Cowboys at est. 79%, final 33–30. The market had it the same way.
• CHI @ SEA — picked Seattle Seahawks at est. 63%, final 34–17. The market had it the same way.
• LV @ NYJ — picked New York Jets at est. 55%, final 38–33. The market had it the same way.

The biggest surprise was Dallas Cowboys at est. 79%: the model and the market both picked them heavily, but Arizona won anyway.

What stood out

Measured against every game since 2009 (arithmetic on final scores and market's final price, nothing else):

• Cincinnati Bengals won despite 4 turnovers; teams that turn it over 4+ times rarely do (it has happened in 603 games since 2009, and those teams lost most of them).
• Pittsburgh Steelers were sacked 8 times, among the most in any game since 2009 (36 games had more).
• Los Angeles Rams beat Los Angeles Chargers for the first time since Week 3, 2018.
• Jacksonville Jaguars: a 35-point win against Indianapolis Colts, the team's biggest win since Week 15, 2017.
• Adonai Mitchell (New York Jets): 142 receiving yards, a career high in 36 games since 2009 (previous best 102).
• Chicago Bears beat Seattle Seahawks for the first time since Week 16, 2021.
• Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals): 462 passing yards, the 44th-most in any game since 2009 (4,737 games). Above it: 527, Matt Schaub (HOU) — Jacksonville Jaguars 37, Houston Texans 43 (Week 11, 2012); 525, Joe Burrow (CIN) — Baltimore Ravens 21, Cincinnati Bengals 41 (Week 16, 2021); 522, Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) — Indianapolis Colts 34, Pittsburgh Steelers 51 (Week 8, 2014).
• Tyler Allgeier (Arizona Cardinals): 147 rushing yards, a career high in 74 games since 2009 (previous best 139).

Where we differed from the market

We agreed with the benchmark pick in every game this week.

What the news layer did

35 claims were applied before kickoff; 22 pointed the right way. No pick flipped.

Key moves: Jalen Hurts out for season with blood clots helped Philadelphia at home (+5.9). A right tackle placed on injured reserve helped Green Bay at home (+1.9). A season-ending pectoral injury helped Buffalo at home (+1.9). A tight end placed on IR hurt Cincinnati at home (-1.9). A 3-time All-Pro defensive tackle traded to the Bears helped Cincinnati at home (+1.9). A season-ending IR placement hurt Dallas at home (+1.9).

Of the claims we declined, 88 would have helped. Worth watching, not yet worth changing a rule.

Rankings after the week

• Chicago Bears up 5 to #7 (from #12).
• Seattle Seahawks down 4 to #11 (from #7).
• Los Angeles Chargers down 1 to #31 (from #30).
• Miami Dolphins up 1 to #30 (from #31).

One week moves the ratings a little, by design; the current season only carries most of the weight by midseason.

Next: Week 9

Picks are up on the NFL home page and update four times a day until kickoff.

Predictions are published to show the model works. Nothing here is a tip.