Week 7 preview

We have 14 games this week. The numbers below are current as of this write-up but keep updating until each kickoff; the NFL home page always has the current version.

Where we differ from the market

Two games stand out where our model diverges meaningfully from the market.

In Cincinnati at Baltimore, we have the Bengals at est. 55% while the market picks Baltimore. Cincinnati has a schedule edge worth 9 points, but Baltimore's home field is worth 8 points against that. Cincinnati's quarterback advantage adds 6 points in their favor.

In Kansas City at Seattle, we have the Chiefs at est. 53% while the market picks Seattle. Kansas City's quarterback edge is substantial at 12 points, but Seattle's home field is worth 8 points and they are the better team overall by 6 points.

History says the market wins these matchups about 56 to 44, so these games test the model more than they confirm it.

The confident ones

Minnesota over Indianapolis sits at est. 82%. The Vikings are the better team by 10 points, they play at home for 5 points, and they are in better form for another 4 points.

Houston over New York Giants is at est. 74%. The Texans are the better team by 10 points, they have a 6-point home advantage, and they have the quarterback edge at 5 points.

The coin flips

Five games fall into the toss-up range, all between est. 53% and 56%:

• New England at Chicago — Chicago est. 54%: home field worth 8 points, but New England is the better team by 4 and has the quarterback edge by 4.
• Cincinnati at Baltimore — Cincinnati est. 55%: schedule edge of 9 points offset by Baltimore's 8-point home advantage and Cincinnati's 6-point quarterback edge.
• Miami at New York Jets — New York Jets est. 56%: Miami has an 8-point schedule edge working against them, but the Jets have 8 points from home field and are the better team by 3.
• Kansas City at Seattle — Kansas City est. 53%: Kansas City's 12-point quarterback advantage against Seattle's 8-point home field and 6-point team quality edge.
• Dallas at Philadelphia — Dallas est. 55%: Dallas has a 13-point quarterback edge, but Philadelphia's home field is worth 8 points and they are the better team by 4.

What the news layer changed

Injuries and roster moves shifted several games. Chicago's defensive end suspension and New England's offensive line losses moved Chicago up 1.9 points. Pittsburgh's finger injury moved them down 1.9 points against New Orleans.

Indianapolis's Week 6 loss to the winless Titans and the firing of General Manager Chris Ballard moved Minnesota up 3.9 points. San Francisco's ruled-out player and Atlanta's linebacker injury moved San Francisco up 0.6 points. Detroit's three injured reserve placements moved them down 1.7 points.

Los Angeles took the biggest hit: a wide receiver out 6 to 10 weeks, a defensive tackle on season-ending injured reserve, another defensive tackle out 4 to 6 weeks, and a kicker with a torn ACL moved them down 4.0 points against Las Vegas. Kansas City's right tackle concussion moved them up 1.4 points, while Seattle's tight end injury moved them down. Dallas's rib injury and Philadelphia's season-ending loss of Jalen Hurts moved Dallas up 2.3 points.

Every pick

• Thu 8:15 PM · NE @ CHI — CHI est. 54% · projected 24–25
• Sun 9:30 AM · PIT @ NO — PIT est. 60% · projected 24–20
• Sun 1:00 PM · CIN @ BAL — CIN est. 55% · projected 25–24
• Sun 1:00 PM · CLE @ TEN — CLE est. 60% · projected 21–18
• Sun 1:00 PM · IND @ MIN — MIN est. 82% · projected 17–27
• Sun 1:00 PM · MIA @ NYJ — NYJ est. 56% · projected 20–23
• Sun 1:00 PM · NYG @ HOU — HOU est. 74% · projected 18–26
• Sun 1:00 PM · SF @ ATL — SF est. 65% · projected 27–23
• Sun 1:00 PM · TB @ CAR — CAR est. 69% · projected 19–25
• Sun 4:05 PM · DEN @ ARI — DEN est. 67% · projected 25–19
• Sun 4:25 PM · GB @ DET — DET est. 65% · projected 24–29
• Sun 4:25 PM · LA @ LV — LA est. 61% · projected 27–23
• Sun 8:20 PM · KC @ SEA — KC est. 53% · projected 23–22
• Mon