Week 7 review

Week 7 in review

10–4 straight-up (71%). The benchmark pick went 10–4 over the same games.

The model and the market agreed on direction in every game, which meant when we were wrong, we were wrong together.

The misses

• NYG @ HOU — picked Houston Texans at est. 77%, final 27–21. The market had it the same way.
• TB @ CAR — picked Carolina Panthers at est. 72%, final 43–13. The market had it the same way.
• SF @ ATL — picked San Francisco 49ers at est. 62%, final 20–29. The market had it the same way.
• MIA @ NYJ — picked New York Jets at est. 56%, final 28–25. The market had it the same way.

The biggest surprise was Houston Texans at est. 77%: they lost at home to the Giants by six.

What stood out

Measured against every game since 2009 (arithmetic on final scores and market's final price, nothing else):

• Seattle Seahawks beat Kansas City Chiefs for the first time since Week 16, 2018.
• Philadelphia Eagles allowed 38 points against Dallas Cowboys, the team's most points allowed since Week 13, 2023.

Where we differed from the market

We agreed with the benchmark pick in every game this week.

What the news layer did

38 claims were applied before kickoff; 16 pointed the right way. No pick flipped.

Key moves that helped: Lamar Jackson ruled out for Baltimore, with Tyler Huntley confirmed as starter, shifted our Ravens-Bengals number by 5.9 points in Cincinnati's favor. Jalen Hurts out for Philadelphia shifted our Eagles-Cowboys number by 5.7 points against Dallas.

Moves that hurt: A defensive end suspended for New England cost 1.9 points against Chicago. Two Pittsburgh players placed on injured reserve—one with a finger injury, one a defensive lineman—each cost 1.9 points against New Orleans. A rookie linebacker ruled out for San Francisco after a stretcher injury cost 1.9 points against Atlanta.

Of the claims we declined, 88 would have helped. Worth watching, not yet worth changing a rule.

Rankings after the week

• Dallas Cowboys up 2 to #17 (from #19).
• Philadelphia Eagles down 2 to #25 (from #23).
• Baltimore Ravens down 1 to #19 (from #18).
• New York Giants up 1 to #23 (from #24).

One week moves the ratings a little, by design; the current season only carries most of the weight by midseason.

Next: Week 8

Picks are up on the NFL home page and update four times a day until kickoff.

Predictions are published to show the model works. Nothing here is a tip.