Week 6 preview

The numbers below are as of this write-up; they keep updating until each kickoff, and the NFL home page.

Where we differ from the market

Four games stand out where our model disagrees with the market's price.

SEA @ DEN: We have Denver at est. 56%, but the market picks Seattle. Denver's home field is worth 8 points in our model, but Seattle is the better team by 5 and in better form by 4.

CAR @ PHI: We have Carolina at est. 52%, but Philadelphia is picked. Philadelphia's home advantage is 8 points, but Carolina has a schedule edge of 7 and Philadelphia is the better team by 4.

CHI @ ATL: We have Atlanta at est. 62%, but Chicago is picked. Atlanta's home field is worth 7 points, and Atlanta has a 6-point QB edge, though Chicago is the better team by 3.

PIT @ TB: We have Tampa Bay at est. 57%, but Pittsburgh is picked. Tampa Bay's home field is worth 8 points, but Pittsburgh is the better team by 4 and has a 1-point offensive efficiency edge.

History says the market wins more of these than we do (about 56–44), so these are the games that test the model, not the ones to be sure about.

The confident ones

Five matchups grade out as clear pick:

• New England Patriots over New York Jets at est. 75%: New England is the better team by 12, has a 6-point QB edge, and plays at home for 5 more points.
• Indianapolis Colts over Tennessee Titans at est. 77%: Indianapolis is the better team by 10, has a 5-point QB edge, and plays at home for 5 more points.
• Los Angeles Rams over Arizona Cardinals at est. 87%: Los Angeles is the better team by 10, has a 6-point QB edge, and is in better form by 5.
• Kansas City Chiefs over Los Angeles Chargers at est. 79%: Kansas City is the better team by 7, has a 6-point QB edge, and plays at home for 5 more points.
• San Francisco 49ers over Washington Commanders at est. 80%: San Francisco is the better team by 11, has a 6-point QB edge, and plays at home for 4 more points.

What the news layer changed

Injuries and roster moves shifted several games. New England took the biggest hit, losing 4 points toward the Jets after multiple offensive line and skill position injuries. Pittsburgh gained 4 points toward Tampa Bay despite losing receivers to injury. Philadelphia lost 5.4 points to Carolina after losing an edge rusher and facing a suspension for a coach's ejection. Arizona lost 4 points to Los Angeles after losing a key player to a torn biceps and trading away a receiver. Green Bay lost 4 points to Dallas after injuries to a running back and defensive lineman.

Every pick

• Thu 8:15 PM · SEA @ DEN — DEN est. 56% · projected 21–22
• Sun 9:30 AM · HOU @ JAX — JAX est. 59% · projected 20–23
• Sun 1:00 PM · BAL @ CLE — BAL est. 65% · projected 26–20
• Sun 1:00 PM · CAR @ PHI — CAR est. 52% · projected 23–23
• Sun 1:00 PM · CHI @ ATL — ATL est. 62% · projected 21–26
• Sun 1:00 PM · NO @ NYG — NYG est. 63% · projected 21–25
• Sun 1:00 PM · NYJ @ NE — NE est. 75% · projected 19–27
• Sun 1:00 PM · PIT @ TB — TB est. 57% · projected 21–24
• Sun 1:00 PM · TEN @ IND — IND est. 77% · projected 16–26
• Sun 4:05 PM · ARI @ LA — LA est. 87% · projected 18–32
• Sun 4:25 PM · BUF @ LV — BUF est. 71% · projected 29–23
• Sun 4:25 PM · LAC @ KC — KC est. 79% · projected 17–27
• Sun 8:20 PM · DAL @ GB — GB est. 59% · projected 26–27
• Mon 8:15 PM · WAS @ SF — SF est. 80% · projected 19–30

Predictions are published to show the model works. Nothing here is a tip.