Week 6 review

Week 6 went 8–6 straight-up (57%), matching the benchmark pick.

The misses

We picked the wrong side in six games:

• ARI @ LA — picked Los Angeles Rams at est. 85%, final 18–16. The market agreed.
• TEN @ IND — picked Indianapolis Colts at est. 79%, final 26–20. The market agreed.
• CHI @ ATL — picked Atlanta Falcons at est. 64%, final 31–23. We disagreed with the market here.
• BAL @ CLE — picked Baltimore Ravens at est. 63%, final 10–13. The market agreed.
• NO @ NYG — picked New York Giants at est. 62%, final 34–27. We disagreed with the market here.
• HOU @ JAX — picked Jacksonville Jaguars at est. 58%, final 34–31. The market agreed.

The biggest surprise was the Los Angeles Rams at est. 85%. Arizona won anyway, as the clear outsider, the 24th-biggest upset of 4,709 games since 2009.

What stood out

Week 6 had zero games decided by 21 or more points, the fewest blowouts of any regular-season week since 2009. Several teams broke long losing streaks: Carolina beat Philadelphia for the first time since 2018, Denver beat Seattle for the first time since 2018, and Tennessee beat Indianapolis for the first time since 2022 after six straight losses. Arizona also beat Los Angeles for the first time since Week 2, 2024, and Cleveland beat Baltimore for the first time since Week 8, 2024.

C.Little kicked a 60-yard field goal for Jacksonville, the 37th-longest made since 2009.

Where we differed from the market

We disagreed with the benchmark pick in four games and went 2–2:

• SEA @ DEN: we had Denver (est. 54%), the market had Seattle. We were right.
• CHI @ ATL: we had Atlanta (est. 64%), the market had Chicago. The market was right.
• NO @ NYG: we had New York (est. 62%), the market had New Orleans. The market was right.
• DAL @ GB: we had Green Bay (est. 60%), the market had Dallas. We were right.

What the news layer did

Forty-seven injury and roster claims were applied before kickoff; 21 pointed the right way. No pick flipped. Six claims helped: Tyler Huntley starting for Baltimore with Lamar Jackson out, Jalen Hurts placed on IR with Tanner McKee taking over for Philadelphia, Baker Mayfield ruled out for Tampa Bay, Jake Browning signed by Los Angeles with Trey Lance on IR, a Cardinals player suspended for a punch incident, and a Houston left tackle placed on injured reserve.

Of the claims we declined, 81 would have helped. Worth watching, not yet worth changing a rule.

Rankings after the week

Most ratings held steady. Buffalo remains at #1.

Next: Week 7

Picks are up on the NFL home page and update four times a day until kickoff.

Predictions are published to show the model works. Nothing here is a tip.