Week 5 preview

Week 5 picks

15 games. The numbers below are as of this write-up; they keep updating until each kickoff, and the NFL home page always has the current version.

Where we differ from the market

• CLE @ NYJ — we have Cleveland Browns at est. 54%; the market has NYJ. NYJ at home (-8); CLE is the better team (+6); CLE in better form (+5)
• NYG @ WAS — we have New York Giants at est. 56%; the market has WAS. WAS at home (-8); NYG in better form (+6); NYG has the schedule edge (+2)
• SF @ SEA — we have San Francisco 49ers at est. 58%; the market has SEA. SF has the QB edge (+17); SEA at home (-8); SEA is the better team (-6)

History says the market wins more of these than we do (about 56–44), so these are the games that test the model, not the ones to be sure about.

The confident ones

• Dallas Cowboys over Tampa Bay Buccaneers at est. 76%: DAL has the QB edge (+10); DAL at home (+6); TB has the more efficient offense (-2)
• Jacksonville Jaguars over Philadelphia Eagles at est. 77%: JAX in better form (+7); JAX is the better team (+6); JAX at home (+6)

The coin flips

• CHI @ GB — CHI at est. est. 54%: CHI in better form (+8); GB at home (-8); GB has the QB edge (-7)
• CLE @ NYJ — CLE at est. est. 54%: NYJ at home (-8); CLE is the better team (+6); CLE in better form (+5)
• IND @ PIT — PIT at est. est. 52%: PIT at home (+8); IND in better form (-2); IND has the more efficient offense (-1)
• BAL @ ATL — ATL at est. est. 51%: ATL at home (+8); BAL has the QB edge (-6); ATL has the more efficient offense (+4)

What the news layer changed

• TB @ DAL — +4.6 points toward DAL: DAL: Joey Porter Jr. acquired via trade from Steelers; elite young cornerback now available for Week 5 game vs TB; DAL: Acquired via trade from Steelers; lockdown cornerback adds significant defensive boost to secondary; TB: Expected to miss 3-6 weeks with dislocated right thumb; Jalon Daniels starting; TB: Safety ruled out 2-4 weeks with rib fracture suffered in Week 4
• PHI @ JAX — +4.0 points toward JAX: PHI: Ruled out with hamstring injury suffered vs. Rams in Week 4; PHI: Right tackle inactive Week 4 for personal reasons; status murky for upcoming game; PHI: RB placed on IR after core muscle surgery
• CHI @ GB — +1.9 points toward CHI: GB: DT ruled out; groin injury will cause him to miss significant time; CHI: Left tackle placed on injured reserve; GB: Linebacker tore Achilles, out for season
• HOU @ TEN — -2.3 points toward HOU: HOU: Linebacker ruled out for Week 4 vs. Cowboys; HOU: Making first NFL start at center vs. Tennessee (line change)
• IND @ PIT — -3.0 points toward PIT: PIT: Joey Porter Jr. traded to Cowboys less than 24 hours before Week 4 game; defensive secondary weakened mid-week; PIT: CB ruled out for multiple weeks; IND: Starting defensive end will be out for a while; PIT: Defensive lineman placed on injured reserve for at least four games
• LV @ NE — -4.5 points toward NE: NE: Defensive lineman ruled out for Week 4 vs Bills; LV: Raiders starting guard out for Week 4 vs Chiefs; NE: Patriots tight end Eli Raridon's son died; personal tragedy may affect team focus; NE: Patriots tight end's son died; potential impact on player availability/focus for Week 4; NE: Rookie cornerback ruled out for Week 4 vs Bills; NE: Patriots tight end's son died; significant personal tragedy
• MIN @ NO — -1.9 points toward MIN: MIN: Torn meniscus, ruled out
• NYG @ WAS — +4.3 points toward NYG: WAS: Jayden Daniels ruled out; Marcus Mariota confirmed to start vs. Colts in London Week 4; WAS: Out for Commanders in London game vs Colts Week 4; WAS: Ruled out Week 4 with right knee MCL injury; status for Giants game uncertain; WAS: Dan Quinn stated goal is to have Jayden Daniels start vs Giants after Colts loss; NYG: Out for rest of regular season with knee injury; NYG: Out for rest of regular season with knee injury; NYG: Placed on IR with foot injury; out for at least 4 weeks; WAS: Placed on IR; fractured and dislocated ankle, done for season
• DEN @ LAC — +3.9 points toward DEN: DEN: All-Pro CB ruled out with non-contact ankle injury suffered vs. 49ers; DEN: CB ruled out with injured ribs; LAC: Right tackle ruled out with neck injury suffered vs. Seahawks; LAC: Left guard ruled out with concussion suffered vs. Seahawks; LAC: WR ruled out with foot injury suffered vs. Seahawks; LAC: Cornerback ruled out with hamstring injury suffered vs. Seahawks; LAC: Left tackle will miss some time with high ankle sprain, IR candidate; DEN: Wide receiver expected to miss time with sprained ankle
• DET @ ARI — +1.9 points toward DET: ARI: Left tackle out for season with torn biceps
• SF @ SEA — +5.5 points toward SF: SF: Defensive end elevated from practice squad for 49ers debut; SEA: Placed on injured reserve with chest injury; will miss at least four games; SEA: Seahawks had 7 personal fouls in Week 4 win; coach Macdonald called discipline unacceptable; SEA: Running back ruled out versus 49ers; SEA: Cornerback remains on paid leave facing eight felony counts from alleged armed robbery and kidnapping
• BAL @ ATL — -0.6 points toward ATL: BAL: Ankle injury sustained vs Titans on 10/4; day-to-day status but not ruled out for Week 5 vs Falcons; ATL: Left tackle ruled out with groin injury during Week 4 game vs Saints; will not return

Every pick

• Thu 8:15 PM · TB @ DAL — DAL est. 76% · projected 22–28
• Sun 9:30 AM · PHI @ JAX — JAX est. 77% · projected 18–27
• Sun 1:00 PM · CHI @ GB — CHI est. 54% · projected 25–23
• Sun 1:00 PM · CIN @ MIA — CIN est. 67% · projected 27–21
• Sun 1:00 PM · CLE @ NYJ — CLE est. 54% · projected 22–21
• Sun 1:00 PM · HOU @ TEN — HOU est. 67% · projected 23–19
• Sun 1:00 PM · IND @ PIT — PIT est. 52% · projected 22–23
• Sun 1:00 PM · LV @ NE — NE est. 65% · projected 20–25
• Sun 1:00 PM · MIN @ NO — MIN est. 62% · projected 24–20
• Sun 1:00 PM · NYG @ WAS — NYG est. 56% · projected 24–22
• Sun 4:05 PM · DEN @ LAC — DEN est. 65% · projected 24–20
• Sun 4:25 PM · DET @ ARI — DET est. 70% · projected 28–22
• Sun 4:25 PM · SF @ SEA — SF est. 58% · projected 25–23
• Sun 8:20 PM · BAL @ ATL — ATL est. 51% · projected 24–25
• Mon 8:15 PM · BUF @ LA — LA est. 56% · projected 26–27

Predictions are published to show the model works. Nothing here is a tip.