Week 5 review

Week 5 brought a 9–5 straight-up record (64%), matching the benchmark pick.

The misses

Five games went the wrong way:

• TB @ DAL — picked Dallas Cowboys at est. 74%, final 24–16. The market agreed.
• BAL @ ATL — picked Atlanta Falcons at est. 68%, final 30–23. The market agreed.
• BUF @ LA — picked Los Angeles Rams at est. 62%, final 37–34. The market agreed.
• CLE @ NYJ — picked Cleveland Browns at est. 59%, final 12–17. We disagreed with the market, which picked the Jets.
• CHI @ GB — picked Chicago Bears at est. 55%, final 7–31. The market agreed.

The biggest surprise was Dallas at est. 74%, which lost to Tampa Bay.

What stood out

Some notable performances and historical context:

• Chicago Bears and Seattle Seahawks each committed 5 turnovers.
• New York Jets were sacked 8 times, among the most in any game since 2009.
• New England Patriots beat Las Vegas Raiders 45–0, the Patriots' highest score since Week 17, 2021, and the Raiders' worst defensive outing since Week 14, 2021.
• Jacksonville Jaguars beat Philadelphia Eagles for the first time in our data (0–5 since 2009).
• Bucky Irving of Tampa Bay rushed for 165 yards, a career high in 32 games.

Where we differed from the market

We disagreed with the benchmark pick in two games:

• CLE @ NYJ: we had Cleveland at est. 59%, the market had New York. The market was right.
• SF @ SEA: we had San Francisco at est. 51%, the market had Seattle. We were right.

What the news layer did

Thirty-six injury and roster claims were applied before kickoff. Nineteen pointed the right way, and none flipped a pick. The layer declined 46 claims that would have helped; no clear pattern yet warrants a rule change.

Rankings after the week

• Buffalo Bills moved up 1 to #1.
• Jacksonville Jaguars moved up 1 to #3.
• Los Angeles Rams moved down 1 to #4.
• San Francisco 49ers moved down 1 to #2.

Next: Week 6

Picks are up on the NFL home page and update four times a day until kickoff.

Predictions are published to show the model works. Nothing here is a tip.