16 games this week. The numbers below are current as of this write-up; they update until each kickoff, and the NFL home page always has the current version.
Where we differ from the market
Three games stand out where our model leans against the market's price.
Pittsburgh at Cleveland: we have the Browns at est. 56%, but the market picks Pittsburgh. Cleveland's home field is worth 8 points; Pittsburgh is the better team by 6. The gap is narrow.
Arizona at New York Giants: we have the Giants at est. 60%, but the market picks Arizona. New York's home advantage is 8 points, and the Giants are in better form by 6. Arizona has the quarterback edge, worth 5 points against them.
Jacksonville at Cincinnati: we have Jacksonville at est. 50%, but the market picks Cincinnati. Cincinnati's home field is worth 8 points against Jacksonville. But Jacksonville is the better team by 7 and in better form by 6.
History says the market wins these matchups about 56 to 44, so these games test the model rather than confirm it.
The confident ones
Baltimore over Tennessee stands out at est. 83%: the Ravens are the better team by 10, have the quarterback edge by 8, and play at home for 4 points.
Minnesota over Miami at est. 79%: the Vikings are the better team by 11, in better form by 7, and at home for 5.
Chicago over New York Jets at est. 74%: the Bears are the better team by 10, in better form by 7, and at home for 6.
Seattle over Los Angeles Chargers at est. 74%: the Seahawks are the better team by 14, in better form by 7, and at home for 6.
Buffalo over New England at est. 73%: the Bills are at home for 6, have the quarterback edge by 6, and are the better team by 5.
The coin flips
Five games land near 50-50. Green Bay at Tampa Bay is exactly est. 50%: Green Bay is at home for 8 and has the more efficient offense by 4, but Tampa Bay has the quarterback edge by 8. Jacksonville at Cincinnati is also est. 50%, and Atlanta at New Orleans is est. 50%. Pittsburgh at Cleveland is est. 56% for Cleveland. Los Angeles at Philadelphia is est. 51% for Los Angeles.
Injuries and roster moves
Injuries shifted several games. Pittsburgh's news moved Cleveland up 3.8 points. Chicago's quarterback injury moved the Bears down 2.4 points. Tennessee's center injury moved Baltimore down 3.4 points. Miami's torn ACL moved Minnesota down 1.9 points. Dallas's short week and safety injury moved Houston up 3 points. Tampa Bay's defensive and receiver injuries moved Green Bay up 3.7 points. Los Angeles's cornerback injury moved the Chargers down 3.6 points. Detroit's cornerback news moved the Lions up 1.9 points. Kansas City's receiver news moved them up 1.9 points.
Every pick
Thu 8:15 PM: PIT @ CLE, CLE est. 56%, projected 20–22. Sun 9:30 AM: IND @ WAS, IND est. 60%, projected 24–22. Sun 1:00 PM: ARI @ NYG, NYG est. 60%, projected 21–24. Sun 1:00 PM: DAL @ HOU, HOU est. 62%, projected 23–26. Sun 1:00 PM: GB @ TB, GB est. 50%, projected 24–23. Sun 1:00 PM: JAX @ CIN, JAX est. 50%, projected 25–24. Sun 1:00 PM: LA @ PHI, LA est. 51%, projected 24–24. Sun 1:00 PM: NE @ BUF, BUF est. 73%, projected 20–29. Sun 1:00 PM: NYJ @ CHI, CHI est. 74%, projected 19–27. Sun 1:00 PM: TEN @ BAL, BAL est. 83%, projected 16–29. Sun 4:05 PM: MIA @ MIN, MIN est. 79%, projected 16–28. Sun 4:25 PM: DEN @ SF, SF est. 63%, projected 22–27. Sun 4:25 PM: KC @ LV, KC est. 64%, projected 26–21. Sun 4:25 PM: LAC @ SEA, SEA est. 74%, projected 17–25. Sun 8:20 PM: DET @ CAR, DET est. 64%, projected 27–23. Mon 8:15 PM: ATL @ NO, NO est. 50%, projected 23–24.
Predictions are published to show the model works. Nothing here is a tip.
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