Week 4 review

Week 4 went 12–4 straight-up (75%), while the benchmark pick managed 9–7 over the same games.

The misses

We picked Buffalo at est. 78% in New England's 29–26 loss; the market agreed. Detroit fell to Carolina 26–32 despite our est. 66% confidence; again the market sided with us. Houston lost to Dallas 34–30 after we gave them est. 62%; the market matched our view. Washington's 30–13 loss to Indianapolis was the outlier: we had them at est. 50%, but the market picked Indianapolis.

The biggest surprise was Buffalo at est. 78%: New England won outright.

What stood out

Measured against every game since 2009:

• T.Loop of Baltimore made a 64-yard field goal, the 6th-longest made of 4,678 games since 2009. The longest: 68 yards by C.Little (Jacksonville over Las Vegas, Week 9, 2025); 67 yards by C.Little (Tennessee over Jacksonville, Week 18, 2025); 66 yards by J.Tucker (Baltimore over Detroit, Week 3, 2021).
• Jacksonville beat Cincinnati for the first time since Week 7, 2019 (4 straight losses in between).
• Los Angeles beat Philadelphia for the first time since Week 2, 2020 (4 straight losses in between).
• Atlanta scored 45 points against New Orleans, the team's most since Week 4, 2016.
• Chicago beat New York for the first time since Week 8, 2018.
• Indianapolis beat Washington for the first time since Week 2, 2018.
• San Francisco beat Denver for the first time since Week 14, 2018.
• C.Ryland of Arizona made a 60-yard field goal, the 36th-longest made of 4,678 games since 2009.

Where we differed from the market

We disagreed with the benchmark pick in 5 games and went 4–1:

• PIT @ CLE: we had Cleveland (est. 56%), the market had Pittsburgh. We were right.
• IND @ WAS: we had Washington (est. 50%), the market had Indianapolis. The market was right.
• ARI @ NYG: we had New York (est. 60%), the market had Arizona. We were right.
• JAX @ CIN: we had Jacksonville (est. 52%), the market had Cincinnati. We were right.
• ATL @ NO: we had Atlanta (est. 56%), the market had New Orleans. We were right.

What the news layer did

56 claims were applied before kickoff; 26 pointed the right way. No pick flipped. Baker Mayfield's dislocated thumb in Tampa Bay helped the model. Caleb Williams being ruled out in Chicago hurt it. The Giants acquiring J.J. McCarthy helped New York's rating.

Of the claims we declined, 62 would have helped. Worth watching, not yet worth changing a rule.

Rankings after the week

• Atlanta Falcons up 2 to #13 (from #15).
• New Orleans Saints down 2 to #24 (from #22).
• Cleveland Browns up 1 to #22 (from #23).
• Dallas Cowboys down 1 to #15 (from #14).

Next: Week 5

Picks are up on the NFL home page and update four times a day until kickoff.

Predictions are published to show the model works. Nothing here is a tip.