Week 3 review

Week 3 was a 10–6 straight-up result (62%), with the benchmark pick going 9–7 over the same games.

The misses

We picked the wrong side in six games:

• SEA @ WAS — picked Seattle at est. 80%, final 31–33. The market agreed.
• ATL @ GB — picked Green Bay at est. 76%, final 35–14. The market agreed.
• PHI @ CHI — picked Philadelphia at est. 66%, final 7–27. The market agreed.
• LV @ NO — picked New Orleans at est. 63%, final 35–27. The market agreed.
• CIN @ PIT — picked Cincinnati at est. 62%, final 27–30. The market agreed.
• HOU @ IND — picked Houston at est. 52%, final 17–19. The market agreed.

The biggest surprise was Seattle at est. 80%. Sam Darnold threw for 379 yards, a career high in 101 games since 2009, and the Seahawks still lost at home.

What stood out

• Buffalo won despite 5 turnovers; teams that turn it over 5+ times rarely win (179 such games since 2009, and most ended in losses).
• Minnesota beat Tampa Bay for the first time since Week 3, 2017.
• Denver beat Los Angeles for the first time in our data (0–4 since 2009 before this).
• Indianapolis beat Houston for the first time since Week 2, 2023 (5 straight losses in between).
• Washington beat Seattle for the first time since Week 12, 2021.
• Drake London had 194 receiving yards, a career high in 64 games since 2009.
• Green Bay lost to Atlanta by 21 points, the team's worst loss since Week 1, 2021.

Where we differed from the market

We disagreed with the benchmark pick in one game:

• CAR @ CLE: we had Cleveland at est. 57%, the market had Carolina. We were right.

What the news layer did

Forty-eight injury claims were applied before kickoff; 24 pointed the right way. No pick flipped. The claims that hurt the home side included Jayden Daniels ruled out for Washington, Jaxson Dart ruled out for Tennessee, and Caleb Williams ruled out for Chicago. Of the claims we declined, 63 would have helped.

Rankings after the week

• Chicago Bears up 4 to #17.
• Green Bay Packers down 1 to #21.
• Indianapolis Colts down 1 to #19.
• New Orleans Saints down 1 to #20.

Next: Week 4

Picks are up on the NFL home page and update four times a day until kickoff.

Predictions are published to show the model works. Nothing here is a tip.