Week 2 preview

NFL grades itself honestly, which means publishing picks we expect to lose about 44% of the time. The market wins more often than we do overall, so these 16 games are where the model gets tested.

Where we differ from the market

Two games stand out as meaningful disagreements with the market's price.

CAR @ ATL: We have Atlanta at est. 55%; the market has Carolina picked. Atlanta's home field is worth 7 points in our model. The Falcons grade as the better team by 5 points and are in better form by 3. The injury news cut hard against Atlanta—Tua Tagovailoa is ruled out with an oblique injury, and a defensive lineman is out for the year with a torn quad—but those moves still leave us slightly favoring the home team.

JAX @ DEN: We have Jacksonville at est. 50%; the market has Denver picked. Jacksonville is in better form by 9 points and has the QB edge by 2, but Denver's home field is worth 8 points. This one is a true toss-up in our view.

The confident ones

Baltimore Ravens over New Orleans Saints at est. 77%: Baltimore is the better team by 8 points, at home for 6 points, and has the QB edge by 6. New Orleans has injuries that matter—a player on IR who will miss multiple weeks and an RB not expected to play. Baltimore has a fractured wrist that will sideline someone for extended time.

San Francisco 49ers over Miami Dolphins at est. 75%: San Francisco is the better team by 9 points, at home for 6, and in better form by 4. The 49ers will be without a rookie WR for at least a month with an ankle injury.

The coin flips

WAS @ DAL at est. 53% for Dallas: Dallas is at home for 8 points and has the QB edge by 5, but Washington grades as the better team by 3. Dallas has significant injury losses—an RB out for the year after hip surgery, a linebacker out 1-2 weeks with a hamstring injury, and a safety out 1-2 weeks with a fractured forearm.

JAX @ DEN at est. 50%: This one is genuinely even.

Every pick

• Thu 8:15 PM · DET @ BUF — BUF est. 67% · projected 24–28
• Sun 1:00 PM · CAR @ ATL — ATL est. 55% · projected 21–25
• Sun 1:00 PM · CIN @ HOU — HOU est. 58% · projected 23–24
• Sun 1:00 PM · CLE @ TB — TB est. 69% · projected 18–25
• Sun 1:00 PM · GB @ NYJ — GB est. 63% · projected 24–23
• Sun 1:00 PM · MIN @ CHI — CHI est. 67% · projected 20–25
• Sun 1:00 PM · NO @ BAL — BAL est. 77% · projected 18–28
• Sun 1:00 PM · PHI @ TEN — PHI est. 72% · projected 25–18
• Sun 1:00 PM · PIT @ NE — NE est. 68% · projected 20–25
• Sun 4:05 PM · JAX @ DEN — JAX est. 50% · projected 23–22
• Sun 4:05 PM · LV @ LAC — LAC est. 67% · projected 20–24
• Sun 4:25 PM · MIA @ SF — SF est. 75% · projected 19–29
• Sun 4:25 PM · SEA @ ARI — SEA est. 70% · projected 24–19
• Sun 4:25 PM · WAS @ DAL — DAL est. 53% · projected 26–26
• Sun 8:20 PM · IND @ KC — KC est. 69% · projected 20–27
• Mon 8:15 PM · NYG @ LA — LA est. 69% · projected 23–29

Predictions are published to show the model works. Nothing here is a tip.