Week 2 review

Week 2 in review

10–6 straight-up (62%). The benchmark pick went 11–5 over the same games.

The model and the market agreed on five of the six misses. In the one spot where we diverged, the market was right.

The misses

• CLE @ TB — picked Tampa Bay Buccaneers at est. 74%, final 23–19. The market had it the same way.
• NO @ BAL — picked Baltimore Ravens at est. 73%, final 24–17. The market had it the same way.
• LV @ LAC — picked Los Angeles Chargers at est. 64%, final 26–14. The market had it the same way.
• MIN @ CHI — picked Chicago Bears at est. 61%, final 9–3. The market had it the same way.
• CIN @ HOU — picked Houston Texans at est. 54%, final 20–6. The market had it the same way.
• CAR @ ATL — picked Atlanta Falcons at est. 53%, final 34–3. We differed from the market here.

The biggest surprise was Tampa Bay Buccaneers at est. 74%: Cleveland won 23–19.

What stood out

Measured against every game since 2009:

• Atlanta Falcons committed 5 turnovers.
• Carolina Panthers won by 31 points against Atlanta, the team's biggest win since the 2015 playoffs.
• Green Bay Packers beat New York Jets for the first time since Week 16, 2018.
• New Orleans Saints beat Baltimore Ravens for the first time since Week 7, 2018.
• Cincinnati Bengals beat Houston Texans for the first time since Week 16, 2020.
• Las Vegas Raiders beat Los Angeles Chargers for the first time since Week 15, 2023.
• B. Aubrey (Dallas Cowboys) made a 60-yard field goal, the 36th-longest made of 4,646 games since 2009.
• Dalton Schultz (Houston Texans) had 140 receiving yards, a career high in 117 games.

Where we differed from the market

We disagreed with the benchmark pick in 1 game and went 0–1:

• CAR @ ATL: we had ATL (est. 53%), the market had CAR. The market was right.

What the news layer did

39 claims were applied before kickoff; 16 pointed the right way. No pick flipped.

The news layer helped most on the Falcons' quarterback situation, where uncertainty about Cooper Rush and Michael Penix Jr. pointed toward Carolina. It hurt on reports that Kyler Murray was unlikely to play for Minnesota, which should have picked Chicago but didn't move the needle enough.

Rankings after the week

• New York Giants down 3 to #20 (from #17).
• Baltimore Ravens down 1 to #5 (from #4).
• Carolina Panthers up 1 to #18 (from #19).
• Chicago Bears down 1 to #23 (from #22).

Next: Week 3

Picks are up on the NFL home page and update four times a day until kickoff.

Predictions are published to show the model works. Nothing here is a tip.