Noble football 2026
Class A South
Where Noble and its rivals finish
Class A South
4 of 7 make itFull table →1 ThorntonCrabtree 148.750 9-0 148.7509 counted · all in Projected #1 · avg. finish 1.0Most likely #1 (>99%) CLINCHED
- Fri 10/30at MassabesicW 35-0
- Sat 10/24vs Bonny EagleW 49-14
- Fri 10/16vs SanfordW 61-0
- Fri 10/9at NobleW 53-20
- Sat 10/3vs PortlandW 43-13
- Fri 9/25at WestbrookW 42-0
- Sat 9/19vs Bedford (NH)W 49-7
- Fri 9/11at South PortlandW 35-21
- Fri 9/4vs ScarboroughW 56-0
Regular season done.
Where Thornton can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #1 = its average finish (1.0). Most likely #1 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #1 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
2 Bonny EagleCrabtree 140.139 8-1 140.1399 counted · all in Projected #2 · avg. finish 2.0Most likely #2 (>99%) CLINCHED
- Fri 10/30vs SanfordW 57-20
- Sat 10/24at ThorntonL 14-49
- Thu 10/15vs Exeter (NH)W 35-14
- Fri 10/9vs Oxford HillsW 45-6
- Fri 10/2at WindhamW 42-6
- Fri 9/25vs ScarboroughW 42-6
- Fri 9/18at MassabesicW 27-14
- Fri 9/11at NobleW 41-19
- Fri 9/4vs South PortlandW 21-14
Regular season done.
Where Bonny Eagle can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #2 = its average finish (2.0). Most likely #2 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #2 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
3 MassabesicCrabtree 112.821 6-3 112.8219 counted · all in Projected #3 · avg. finish 3.0Most likely #3 (>99%) CLINCHED
- Fri 10/30vs ThorntonL 0-35
- Fri 10/23at ScarboroughW 47-30
- Fri 10/16vs LewistonW 41-0
- Fri 10/9at South PortlandL 18-21
- Fri 10/2vs NobleW 14-7
- Fri 9/25at SanfordW 28-6
- Fri 9/18vs Bonny EagleL 14-27
- Fri 9/11vs KennebunkW 26-0
- Fri 9/4at BangorW 22-18
Regular season done.
Where Massabesic can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #3 = its average finish (3.0). Most likely #3 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #3 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
4 South PortlandCrabtree 100.694 4-5 100.6949 counted · all in Projected #4 · avg. finish 4.0Most likely #4 (>99%) CLINCHED
- Fri 10/30vs PortlandL 7-27
- Fri 10/23vs Winnacunnet (NH)L 14-34
- Fri 10/16at NobleL 7-21
- Fri 10/9vs MassabesicW 21-18
- Fri 10/2at SanfordW 40-0
- Fri 9/25vs CheverusW 27-20
- Fri 9/18at ScarboroughW 20-13
- Fri 9/11vs ThorntonL 21-35
- Fri 9/4at Bonny EagleL 14-21
Regular season done.
Where South Portland can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #4 = its average finish (4.0). Most likely #4 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #4 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
5 NobleCrabtree 100.141 4-5 100.1419 counted · all in Projected #5 · avg. finish 5.0Most likely #5 (>99%) ELIMINATED
- Fri 10/30at ScarboroughW 51-8
- Fri 10/23at Oxford HillsL 14-34
- Fri 10/16vs South PortlandW 21-7
- Fri 10/9vs ThorntonL 20-53
- Fri 10/2at MassabesicL 7-14
- Fri 9/25at MarshwoodL 51-52
- Fri 9/18vs SanfordW 48-8
- Fri 9/11vs Bonny EagleL 19-41
- Fri 9/4vs Dover (NH)W 30-22
Regular season done.
Where Noble can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #5 = its average finish (5.0). Most likely #5 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #5 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
6 SanfordCrabtree 71.871 1-8 71.8719 counted · all in Projected #6 · avg. finish 6.0Most likely #6 (>99%) ELIMINATED
- Fri 10/30at Bonny EagleL 20-57
- Fri 10/23vs BangorL 14-42
- Fri 10/16at ThorntonL 0-61
- Sat 10/10at ScarboroughW 44-36
- Fri 10/2vs South PortlandL 0-40
- Fri 9/25vs MassabesicL 6-28
- Fri 9/18at NobleL 8-48
- Fri 9/11at WindhamL 7-28
- Thu 9/3vs MarshwoodL 27-50
Regular season done.
Where Sanford can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #6 = its average finish (6.0). Most likely #6 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #6 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
7 ScarboroughCrabtree 56.962 0-9 56.9629 counted · all in Projected #7 · avg. finish 7.0Most likely #7 (>99%) ELIMINATED
- Fri 10/30vs NobleL 8-51
- Fri 10/23vs MassabesicL 30-47
- Sat 10/17at GorhamL 21-28
- Sat 10/10vs SanfordL 36-44
- Fri 10/2at Edward LittleL 21-27
- Fri 9/25at Bonny EagleL 6-42
- Fri 9/18vs South PortlandL 13-20
- Fri 9/11vs PortlandL 0-25
- Fri 9/4at ThorntonL 0-56
Regular season done.
Where Scarborough can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #7 = its average finish (7.0). Most likely #7 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #7 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
Why?
Projected: each team gets its own spot, in order of its average finish across the simulated seasons (avg. finish). Most likely: the single spot it finished in most often. Tap a team for the % at every spot. Estimates, and they can be wrong.
Class A South
4 of 7 make itFull table →1 Thornton 9-0 Likely #1 · >99% CLINCHED
Where Thornton can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
2 Bonny Eagle 8-1 Likely #2 · >99% CLINCHED
Where Bonny Eagle can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
3 Massabesic 6-3 Likely #3 · >99% CLINCHED
Where Massabesic can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
4 South Portland 4-5 Likely #4 · >99% CLINCHED
Where South Portland can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
5 Noble 4-5 Likely #5 · >99% ELIMINATED
Where Noble can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
6 Sanford 1-8 Likely #6 · >99% ELIMINATED
Where Sanford can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
7 Scarborough 0-9 Likely #7 · >99% ELIMINATED
Where Scarborough can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
Why?
Each cell is how often the team finished in that place in 1,500 played-out seasons: an estimate. Empty cells can't be reached, proven by checking every combination of the remaining results. The outlined cell is where each team stands now.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · Class A South, top 4 qualify · all divisions →
Noble can no longer reach the top 4. Every result still counts toward other teams' Crabtree numbers.
Why?
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. The highest and lowest places are exact: some combination of results reaches each of them, and none goes past them. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
How this is figured Crabtree step by step · tiebreakers · power rating
Crabtree index today: 100.141 (the MPA's playoff number, recomputed).
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Dover (NH) | 2-7 | yes (season record, as the MPA counts it) |
| Bonny Eagle | 8-1 | yes |
| Sanford | 1-8 | yes |
| Marshwood | 7-1 | yes |
| Massabesic | 6-3 | yes |
| Thornton | 9-0 | yes |
| South Portland | 4-5 | yes |
| Oxford Hills | 7-1 | yes |
| Scarborough | 0-9 | yes |
Own win% = 4 / 9 = 0.4444
Opponents pooled = 44 wins / 79 games = 0.5570
Crabtree = (0.4444 + 0.5570) × 100 = 100.141
The NH opponent counts with its real record, as the MPA counts it.
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 13.333, tournament index 25.5556 over 9 scheduled games.
Our power rating
Rated #14 of Maine's 55 11-man teams, est. 8.7 points better than an average team.
8.7 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band 1.0 to 16.3) · rank #14 among 11-man teams · est. <1% chance of being the top-rated team in Class A South, est. <1% in all of 11-man
9 games of evidence; 10% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average A team); from Week 7 on last season doesn't count at all. A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
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Quick answers
Can Noble still make the playoffs?
No. Noble is eliminated: no combination of the games left puts it in the Class A South top 4.
When is Noble's next game?
Noble's regular season is over (4-5). Playoff dates and sites come from the MPA; our bracket page adds them as they're posted.
More Noble: Basketball · All Noble sports