Week 5 recap
Facts only: assembled by our system directly from results; no prose model was used. Oct 8.
39 games in Week 5. Our picks went 29–9. Our biggest miss: Gorham over Cheverus 19–17; we had Cheverus at est. 96%. Messalonskee also beat Fryeburg 28–20 after we had Fryeburg at est. 87%. Orono also beat Spruce Mountain 36–34 after we had Spruce Mountain at est. 79%. Seeds that moved: In Class C, Foxcroft moved from #1 to #3. In Class D North, Mattanawcook moved from #5 to #3. In Class D South, Lisbon moved from #6 to #4. In Class D South, Poland moved from #4 to #6.
The fact sheet this was written from
{
"biggest_margins": [
{
"date": "2026-10-03",
"division_loser": "8L-North",
"division_winner": "8L-South",
"home": "MDI",
"loser": "MDI",
"margin": 60,
"pre_game_win_prob_of_winner": 0.99,
"score": "60-0",
"winner": "Yarmouth"
},
{
"date": "2026-10-02",
"division_loser": "8L-North",
"division_winner": "8L-North",
"home": "Houlton",
"loser": "Houlton",
"margin": 54,
"pre_game_win_prob_of_winner": 0.99,
"score": "72-18",
"winner": "Old Town"
},
{
"date": "2026-10-03",
"division_loser": "C",
"division_winner": "C",
"home": "Nokomis",
"loser": "Hampden",
"margin": 52,
"pre_game_win_prob_of_winner": 0.94,
"score": "52-0",
"winner": "Nokomis"
},
{
"date": "2026-10-02",
"division_loser": "D-North",
"division_winner": "D-North",
"home": "Mattanawcook",
"loser": "Mattanawcook",
"margin": 44,
"pre_game_win_prob_of_winner": 0.95,
"score": "44-0",
"winner": "Winslow"
},
{
"date": "2026-10-02",
"division_loser": "D-South",
"division_winner": "C",
"home": "Dirigo",
"loser": "Dirigo",
"margin": 42,
"pre_game_win_prob_of_winner": 0.97,
"score": "42-0",
"winner": "Leavitt"
}
],
"closest": [
{
"date": "2026-10-02",
"division_loser": "8L-South",
"division_winner": "8S-North",
"home": "Orono",
"loser": "Spruce Mountain",
"margin": 2,
"pre_game_win_prob_of_winner": 0.25,
"score": "36-34",
"winner": "Orono"
},
{
"date": "2026-10-03",
"division_loser": "B-South",
"division_winner": "B-South",
"home": "Cheverus",
"loser": "Cheverus",
"margin": 2,
"pre_game_win_prob_of_winner": 0.04,
"score": "19-17",
"winner": "Gorham"
},
{
"date": "2026-10-06",
"division_loser": "D-North",
"division_winner": "D-South",
"home": "Lisbon",
"loser": "Madison",
"margin": 2,
"pre_game_win_prob_of_winner": 0.52,
"score": "20-18",
"winner": "Lisbon"
},
{
"date": "2026-10-02",
"division_loser": "C",
"division_winner": "C",
"home": "Brewer",
"loser": "Brewer",
"margin": 5,
"pre_game_win_prob_of_winner": 0.65,
"score": "12-7",
"winner": "York"
},
{
"date": "2026-10-02",
"division_loser": "A-South",
"division_winner": "A-North",
"home": "Edward Little",
"loser": "Scarborough",
"margin": 6,
"pre_game_win_prob_of_winner": 0.66,
"score": "27-21",
"winner": "Edward Little"
}
],
"complete": true,
"days_covered": "Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Tuesday",
"division_leaders": {
"8-Man Large North": [
{
"crabtree": 116.0,
"record": "4-1",
"team": "Old Town"
},
{
"crabtree": 113.333,
"record": "4-1",
"team": "Ellsworth"
},
{
"crabtree": 90.0,
"record": "2-3",
"team": "MDI"
}
],
"8-Man Large South": [
{
"crabtree": 156.0,
"record": "5-0",
"team": "Yarmouth"
},
{
"crabtree": 127.826,
"record": "4-1",
"team": "Cape Elizabeth"
},
{
"crabtree": 120.0,
"record": "3-1",
"team": "Gray-NG"
}
],
"8-Man Small North": [
{
"crabtree": 132.0,
"record": "5-0",
"team": "Stearns"
},
{
"crabtree": 119.167,
"record": "2-3",
"team": "Orono"
},
{
"crabtree": 105.833,
"record": "3-2",
"team": "Washington Academy"
}
],
"8-Man Small South": [
{
"crabtree": 145.833,
"record": "5-0",
"team": "OOB"
},
{
"crabtree": 106.667,
"record": "2-3",
"team": "Telstar"
},
{
"crabtree": 105.0,
"record": "3-1",
"team": "Maranacook"
}
],
"Class A North": [
{
"crabtree": 126.316,
"record": "4-0",
"team": "Oxford Hills"
},
{
"crabtree": 117.5,
"record": "4-1",
"team": "Portland"
},
{
"crabtree": 105.217,
"record": "2-3",
"team": "Windham"
}
],
"Class A South": [
{
"crabtree": 144.0,
"record": "5-0",
"team": "Bonny Eagle"
},
{
"crabtree": 140.0,
"record": "5-0",
"team": "Thornton"
},
{
"crabtree": 134.167,
"record": "4-1",
"team": "Massabesic"
}
],
"Class B North": [
{
"crabtree": 148.0,
"record": "5-0",
"team": "Lawrence"
},
{
"crabtree": 140.0,
"record": "4-1",
"team": "Cony"
},
{
"crabtree": 112.0,
"record": "3-2",
"team": "Skowhegan"
}
],
"Class B South": [
{
"crabtree": 124.0,
"record": "5-0",
"team": "Marshwood"
},
{
"crabtree": 116.0,
"record": "4-1",
"team": "Kennebunk"
},
{
"crabtree": 112.0,
"record": "4-1",
"team": "Biddeford"
}
],
"Class C": [
{
"crabtree": 140.0,
"record": "5-0",
"team": "Leavitt"
},
{
"crabtree": 136.0,
"record": "5-0",
"team": "Hermon"
},
{
"crabtree": 136.0,
"record": "4-1",
"team": "Foxcroft"
}
],
"Class D North": [
{
"crabtree": 128.0,
"record": "4-1",
"team": "Winslow"
},
{
"crabtree": 100.0,
"record": "4-1",
"team": "MCI"
},
{
"crabtree": 96.0,
"record": "2-3",
"team": "Mattanawcook"
}
],
"Class D South": [
{
"crabtree": 136.0,
"record": "4-1",
"team": "Freeport"
},
{
"crabtree": 120.0,
"record": "4-1",
"team": "Winthrop"
},
{
"crabtree": 116.0,
"record": "3-2",
"team": "Morse"
}
]
},
"games_played": 39,
"generated_at": "2026-10-08T07:30:08",
"next_week_sample": [
{
"away": "Freeport",
"date": "2026-10-08",
"home": "Wells"
},
{
"away": "Camden Hills",
"date": "2026-10-08",
"home": "Cony"
},
{
"away": "Poland",
"date": "2026-10-08",
"home": "Morse"
},
{
"away": "Brewer",
"date": "2026-10-08",
"home": "Hermon"
},
{
"away": "Traip",
"date": "2026-10-08",
"home": "OOB"
},
{
"away": "Madison",
"date": "2026-10-09",
"home": "Belfast"
},
{
"away": "Kennebunk",
"date": "2026-10-09",
"home": "Fryeburg"
},
{
"away": "Oak Hill",
"date": "2026-10-09",
"home": "York"
},
{
"away": "Boothbay",
"date": "2026-10-09",
"home": "Maranacook"
},
{
"away": "Old Town",
"date": "2026-10-09",
"home": "Lake Region"
},
{
"away": "Bangor",
"date": "2026-10-09",
"home": "Portland"
},
{
"away": "Mount View",
"date": "2026-10-09",
"home": "Gray-NG"
}
],
"our_misses": [
{
"date": "2026-10-03",
"loser": "Cheverus",
"our_pct_loser": "96",
"score": "19\u201317",
"winner": "Gorham"
},
{
"date": "2026-10-02",
"loser": "Fryeburg",
"our_pct_loser": "87",
"score": "28\u201320",
"winner": "Messalonskee"
},
{
"date": "2026-10-02",
"loser": "Spruce Mountain",
"our_pct_loser": "79",
"score": "36\u201334",
"winner": "Orono"
}
],
"our_picks": {
"l": 9,
"w": 29
},
"results": [
{
"date": "2026-10-03",
"division_loser": "8L-North",
"division_winner": "8L-South",
"home": "MDI",
"loser": "MDI",
"margin": 60,
"pre_game_win_prob_of_winner": 0.99,
"score": "60-0",
"winner": "Yarmouth"
},
{
"date": "2026-10-02",
"division_loser": "8L-North",
"division_winner": "8L-North",
"home": "Houlton",
"loser": "Houlton",
"margin": 54,
"pre_game_win_prob_of_winner": 0.99,
"score": "72-18",
"winner": "Old Town"
},
{
"date": "2026-10-03",
"division_loser": "C",
"division_winner": "C",
"home": "Nokomis",
"loser": "Hampden",
"margin": 52,
"pre_game_win_prob_of_winner": 0.94,
"score": "52-0",
"winner": "Nokomis"
},
{
"date": "2026-10-02",
"division_loser": "D-North",
"division_winner": "D-North",
"home": "Mattanawcook",
"loser": "Mattanawcook",
"margin": 44,
"pre_game_win_prob_of_winner": 0.95,
"score": "44-0",
"winner": "Winslow"
},
{
"date": "2026-10-02",
"division_loser": "D-South",
"division_winner": "C",
"home": "Dirigo",
"loser": "Dirigo",
"margin": 42,
"pre_game_win_prob_of_winner": 0.97,
"score": "42-0",
"winner": "Leavitt"
},
{
"date": "2026-10-02",
"division_loser": "A-South",
"division_winner": "A-South",
"home": "Sanford",
"loser": "Sanford",
"margin": 40,
"pre_game_win_prob_of_winner": 0.95,
"score": "40-0",
"winner": "South Portland"
},
{
"date": "2026-10-02",
"division_loser": "A-North",
"division_winner": "A-South",
"home": "Windham",
"loser": "Windham",
"margin": 36,
"pre_game_win_prob_of_winner": 0.93,
"score": "42-6",
"winner": "Bonny Eagle"
},
{
"date": "2026-10-03",
"division_loser": "D-North",
"division_winner": "D-South",
"home": "Oak Hill",
"loser": "Oak Hill",
"margin": 35,
"pre_game_win_prob_of_winner": 0.98,
"score": "35-0",
"winner": "Winthrop"
},
{
"date": "2026-10-02",
"division_loser": "8L-North",
"division_winner": "8L-South",
"home": "Waterville",
"loser": "Waterville",
"margin": 34,
"pre_game_win_prob_of_winner": 0.96,
"score": "50-16",
"winner": "Cape Elizabeth"
},
{
"date": "2026-10-03",
"division_loser": "B-North",
"division_winner": "B-North",
"home": "Brunswick",
"loser": "Brunswick",
"margin": 33,
"pre_game_win_prob_of_winner": 0.51,
"score": "39-6",
"winner": "Mt. Blue"
},
{
"date": "2026-10-02",
"division_loser": "C",
"division_winner": "C",
"home": "Oceanside",
"loser": "Oceanside",
"margin": 31,
"pre_game_win_prob_of_winner": 0.91,
"score": "37-6",
"winner": "Hermon"
},
{
"date": "2026-10-02",
"division_loser": "D-North",
"division_winner": "C",
"home": "Foxcroft",
"loser": "John Bapst",
"margin": 31,
"pre_game_win_prob_of_winner": 0.93,
"score": "45-14",
"winner": "Foxcroft"
},
{
"date": "2026-10-03",
"division_loser": "8S-South",
"division_winner": "8S-North",
"home": "Mount View",
"loser": "Mount View",
"margin": 30,
"pre_game_win_prob_of_winner": 0.86,
"score": "36-6",
"winner": "Dexter"
},
{
"date": "2026-10-03",
"division_loser": "A-North",
"division_winner": "A-South",
"home": "Thornton",
"loser": "Portland",
"margin": 30,
"pre_game_win_prob_of_winner": 0.83,
"score": "43-13",
"winner": "Thornton"
},
{
"date": "2026-10-02",
"division_loser": "A-North",
"division_winner": "A-North",
"home": "Lewiston",
"loser": "Lewiston",
"margin": 29,
"pre_game_win_prob_of_winner": 1.0,
"score": "35-6",
"winner": "Oxford Hills"
},
{
"date": "2026-10-02",
"division_loser": "A-North",
"division_winner": "B-South",
"home": "Kennebunk",
"loser": "Deering",
"margin": 28,
"pre_game_win_prob_of_winner": 0.96,
"score": "34-6",
"winner": "Kennebunk"
},
{
"date": "2026-10-03",
"division_loser": "C",
"division_winner": "C",
"home": "Medomak Valley",
"loser": "Medomak Valley",
"margin": 28,
"pre_game_win_prob_of_winner": 0.95,
"score": "34-6",
"winner": "Greely"
},
{
"date": "2026-10-02",
"division_loser": "B-South",
"division_winner": "B-South",
"home": "Falmouth",
"loser": "Falmouth",
"margin": 26,
"pre_game_win_prob_of_winner": 0.42,
"score": "42-16",
"winner": "Marshwood"
},
{
"date": "2026-10-02",
"division_loser": "8S-North",
"division_winner": "8S-North",
"home": "Stearns",
"loser": "Washington Academy",
"margin": 26,
"pre_game_win_prob_of_winner": 0.9,
"score": "40-14",
"winner": "Stearns"
},
{
"date": "2026-10-02",
"division_loser": "8S-South",
"division_winner": "8S-South",
"home": "Boothbay",
"loser": "Boothbay",
"margin": 24,
"pre_game_win_prob_of_winner": 0.97,
"score": "50-26",
"winner": "OOB"
},
{
"date": "2026-10-03",
"division_loser": "B-North",
"division_winner": "B-North",
"home": "Camden Hills",
"loser": "Camden Hills",
"margin": 22,
"pre_game_win_prob_of_winner": 0.58,
"score": "34-12",
"winner": "Skowhegan"
},
{
"date": "2026-10-02",
"division_loser": "8L-South",
"division_winner": "8L-North",
"home": "Ellsworth",
"loser": "Mt. Ararat",
"margin": 20,
"pre_game_win_prob_of_winner": 0.94,
"score": "42-22",
"winner": "Ellsworth"
},
{
"date": "2026-10-02",
"division_loser": "D-North",
"division_winner": "D-South",
"home": "Mountain Valley",
"loser": "Belfast",
"margin": 20,
"pre_game_win_prob_of_winner": 0.73,
"score": "20-0",
"winner": "Mountain Valley"
},
{
"date": "2026-10-02",
"division_loser": "D-South",
"division_winner": "D-South",
"home": "Poland",
"loser": "Poland",
"margin": 19,
"pre_game_win_prob_of_winner": 0.39,
"score": "35-16",
"winner": "Lisbon"
},
{
"date": "2026-10-02",
"division_loser": "B-South",
"division_winner": "B-South",
"home": "Biddeford",
"loser": "Westbrook",
"margin": 17,
"pre_game_win_prob_of_winner": 0.49,
"score": "31-14",
"winner": "Biddeford"
},
{
"date": "2026-10-02",
"division_loser": "C",
"division_winner": "C",
"home": "Wells",
"loser": "Gardiner",
"margin": 16,
"pre_game_win_prob_of_winner": 0.47,
"score": "47-31",
"winner": "Wells"
},
{
"date": "2026-10-02",
"division_loser": "D-South",
"division_winner": "D-South",
"home": "Freeport",
"loser": "Morse",
"margin": 14,
"pre_game_win_prob_of_winner": 0.89,
"score": "20-6",
"winner": "Freeport"
},
{
"date": "2026-10-01",
"division_loser": "8S-South",
"division_winner": "8S-South",
"home": "Traip",
"loser": "Traip",
"margin": 10,
"pre_game_win_prob_of_winner": 0.39,
"score": "44-34",
"winner": "Sacopee Valley"
},
{
"date": "2026-10-03",
"division_loser": "8L-South",
"division_winner": "8L-South",
"home": "Gray-NG",
"loser": "Lake Region",
"margin": 10,
"pre_game_win_prob_of_winner": 0.56,
"score": "26-16",
"winner": "Gray-NG"
},
{
"date": "2026-10-02",
"division_loser": "D-North",
"division_winner": "D-North",
"home": "Madison",
"loser": "Madison",
"margin": 9,
"pre_game_win_prob_of_winner": 0.39,
"score": "21-12",
"winner": "MCI"
},
{
"date": "2026-10-02",
"division_loser": "B-North",
"division_winner": "B-North",
"home": "Messalonskee",
"loser": "Fryeburg",
"margin": 8,
"pre_game_win_prob_of_winner": 0.11,
"score": "28-20",
"winner": "Messalonskee"
},
{
"date": "2026-10-02",
"division_loser": "B-North",
"division_winner": "B-North",
"home": "Lawrence",
"loser": "Cony",
"margin": 8,
"pre_game_win_prob_of_winner": 0.72,
"score": "35-27",
"winner": "Lawrence"
},
{
"date": "2026-10-03",
"division_loser": "8S-South",
"division_winner": "8S-South",
"home": "Telstar",
"loser": "Maranacook",
"margin": 8,
"pre_game_win_prob_of_winner": 0.46,
"score": "38-30",
"winner": "Telstar"
},
{
"date": "2026-10-02",
"division_loser": "A-South",
"division_winner": "A-South",
"home": "Massabesic",
"loser": "Noble",
"margin": 7,
"pre_game_win_prob_of_winner": 0.72,
"score": "14-7",
"winner": "Massabesic"
},
{
"date": "2026-10-02",
"division_loser": "A-South",
"division_winner": "A-North",
"home": "Edward Little",
"loser": "Scarborough",
"margin": 6,
"pre_game_win_prob_of_winner": 0.66,
"score": "27-21",
"winner": "Edward Little"
},
{
"date": "2026-10-02",
"division_loser": "C",
"division_winner": "C",
"home": "Brewer",
"loser": "Brewer",
"margin": 5,
"pre_game_win_prob_of_winner": 0.65,
"score": "12-7",
"winner": "York"
},
{
"date": "2026-10-02",
"division_loser": "8L-South",
"division_winner": "8S-North",
"home": "Orono",
"loser": "Spruce Mountain",
"margin": 2,
"pre_game_win_prob_of_winner": 0.25,
"score": "36-34",
"winner": "Orono"
},
{
"date": "2026-10-03",
"division_loser": "B-South",
"division_winner": "B-South",
"home": "Cheverus",
"loser": "Cheverus",
"margin": 2,
"pre_game_win_prob_of_winner": 0.04,
"score": "19-17",
"winner": "Gorham"
},
{
"date": "2026-10-06",
"division_loser": "D-North",
"division_winner": "D-South",
"home": "Lisbon",
"loser": "Madison",
"margin": 2,
"pre_game_win_prob_of_winner": 0.52,
"score": "20-18",
"winner": "Lisbon"
}
],
"season": 2026,
"seeds_moved": [
{
"division": "Class C",
"from": 1,
"team": "Foxcroft",
"to": 3
},
{
"division": "Class D North",
"from": 5,
"team": "Mattanawcook",
"to": 3
},
{
"division": "Class D South",
"from": 6,
"team": "Lisbon",
"to": 4
},
{
"division": "Class D South",
"from": 4,
"team": "Poland",
"to": 6
}
],
"standings_movers": [
{
"crabtree": 136.0,
"division": "Class C",
"from_rank": 1,
"record": "4-1",
"team": "Foxcroft",
"to_rank": 3
},
{
"crabtree": 96.0,
"division": "Class D North",
"from_rank": 5,
"record": "2-3",
"team": "Mattanawcook",
"to_rank": 3
},
{
"crabtree": 100.0,
"division": "Class D South",
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"record": "3-2",
"team": "Lisbon",
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},
{
"crabtree": 88.0,
"division": "Class D South",
"from_rank": 4,
"record": "1-4",
"team": "Poland",
"to_rank": 6
}
],
"still_to_play": [],
"undefeated": [
{
"division": "8-Man Large South",
"record": "5-0",
"team": "Yarmouth"
},
{
"division": "8-Man Small North",
"record": "5-0",
"team": "Stearns"
},
{
"division": "8-Man Small South",
"record": "5-0",
"team": "OOB"
},
{
"division": "Class A North",
"record": "4-0",
"team": "Oxford Hills"
},
{
"division": "Class A South",
"record": "5-0",
"team": "Bonny Eagle"
},
{
"division": "Class A South",
"record": "5-0",
"team": "Thornton"
},
{
"division": "Class B North",
"record": "5-0",
"team": "Lawrence"
},
{
"division": "Class B South",
"record": "5-0",
"team": "Marshwood"
},
{
"division": "Class C",
"record": "5-0",
"team": "Leavitt"
},
{
"division": "Class C",
"record": "5-0",
"team": "Hermon"
}
],
"unreported_games": [],
"upsets_by_our_rating": [
{
"date": "2026-10-02",
"division_loser": "8L-South",
"division_winner": "8S-North",
"home": "Orono",
"loser": "Spruce Mountain",
"margin": 2,
"pre_game_win_prob_of_winner": 0.25,
"score": "36-34",
"winner": "Orono"
},
{
"date": "2026-10-02",
"division_loser": "B-North",
"division_winner": "B-North",
"home": "Messalonskee",
"loser": "Fryeburg",
"margin": 8,
"pre_game_win_prob_of_winner": 0.11,
"score": "28-20",
"winner": "Messalonskee"
},
{
"date": "2026-10-03",
"division_loser": "B-South",
"division_winner": "B-South",
"home": "Cheverus",
"loser": "Cheverus",
"margin": 2,
"pre_game_win_prob_of_winner": 0.04,
"score": "19-17",
"winner": "Gorham"
}
],
"week": 5
}